Your concise pre-market intelligence: overnight moves, what drove them, key levels to watch, and the top data releases shaping today's session.
Risk appetite opened the week in constructive territory after Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the US economy added 177,000 jobs in April — slightly below the 185,000 consensus but accompanied by a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.8%. The market's initial reaction was mixed before settling into a risk-on bias: equities rallied on the view that a softer labour market reduces the likelihood of additional Fed tightening, while the dollar weakened modestly and gold extended its recent rally toward $2,350.
Asian equity markets were broadly positive. Nikkei 225 advanced 0.4% despite USD/JPY easing to 155.20 on dollar weakness. The Hang Seng added 0.9% on continued optimism around China's property sector stabilisation measures. European futures are pointing to a flat-to-marginally-positive open: Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1%, FTSE 100 futures flat ahead of this week's UK CPI data.
In currencies, the dollar index (DXY) slipped to 104.82 — a two-week low — as yield differentials compressed following the NFP miss. EUR/USD broke above the 1.0840 resistance that had capped the pair for three sessions, targeting the 1.0900 area. USD/JPY extended its decline to 155.20, with traders cautious ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes which may reveal additional detail on the Fed's current thinking around the neutral rate.
Gold's rally to $2,341 continues to attract attention. The metal has now closed higher in 6 of the last 8 sessions, supported by a weakening dollar, continued central bank accumulation, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The next meaningful resistance sits at $2,360 — the intraday high from the April 12 spike. A sustained close above that level would open the path toward $2,400.
Crude oil remains rangebound at $78–$82 (WTI). OPEC+ supply cuts are providing a floor while demand uncertainty — particularly from China — caps the upside. This week's EIA inventory data (Wednesday 14:30 UTC) will provide fresh direction.
US 10-year Treasury yields fell 4 basis points to 4.38% on Friday's jobs data, with the market now pricing approximately 1.5 rate cuts in 2026 — up from 1.2 cuts priced just one week ago. The 2s10s yield curve remains inverted at -32bps, signalling that bond markets still see recession risk as elevated on a 12–18 month horizon. Watch Wednesday's FOMC Minutes for any shift in the committee's view on the neutral rate.
EUR/USD: Support 1.0820, Resistance 1.0900. USD/JPY: Support 154.80, Resistance 155.80. Gold: Support $2,310, Resistance $2,360. S&P 500: Support 5,190, Resistance 5,280 (all-time high).
| Time (UTC) | Event | Currency | Forecast | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 🇬🇧 GBP | 4.5% | Medium |
| 10:00 | German ZEW Sentiment | 🇩🇪 EUR | 18.2 | Medium |
| 12:30 | 🔴 US CPI (MoM, Apr) | 🇺🇸 USD | 0.3% | HIGH |
| 12:30 | 🔴 US Core CPI (MoM) | 🇺🇸 USD | 0.3% | HIGH |
| 14:00 | US Empire State Mfg | 🇺🇸 USD | -5.2 | Low |
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